There is growing interest in using machine learning (ML) to support clinical diagnosis, but most approaches rely on static, fully observed datasets and fail to reflect the sequential, resource-aware reasoning clinicians use in practice. Diagnosis remains complex and error prone, especially in high-pressure or resource-limited settings, underscoring the need for frameworks that help clinicians make timely and cost-effective decisions. We propose ACTMED(Adaptive Clinical Test selection via Model-based Experimental Design), a diagnostic framework that integrates Bayesian Experimental Design (BED) with large language models (LLMs) to better emulate real-world diagnostic reasoning. At each step, ACTMED selects the test expected to yield the greatest reduction in diagnostic uncertainty for a given patient. LLMs act as flexible simulators, generating plausible patient state distributions and supporting belief updates without requiring structured, task-specific training data. Clinicians can remain in the loop; reviewing test suggestions, interpreting intermediate outputs, and applying clinical judgment throughout. We evaluate ACTMEDon real-world datasets and show it can optimize test selection to improve diagnostic accuracy, interpretability, and resource use. This represents a step toward transparent, adaptive, and clinician-aligned diagnostic systems that generalize across settings with reduced reliance on domain-specific data.

Large language models (LLMs) have achieved significant performance progress in various natural language processing applications. However, LLMs still struggle to meet the strict requirements for accuracy and reliability in the medical field and face many challenges in clinical applications. Existing clinical diagnostic evaluation benchmarks for evaluating medical agents powered by LLMs have severe limitations. Firstly, most existing medical evaluation benchmarks face the risk of data leakage or contamination.

Data deviations in electronic health records (EHR) refer to discrepancies between recorded entries and a patient's actual physiological state, indicating a decline in EHR data fidelity. Such deviations can result from pre-analytical variability, documentation errors, or unvalidated data sources. Effectively detecting data deviations is clinically valuable for identifying erroneous records, excluding them from downstream clinical workflows, and informing corrective actions. Despite its importance and practical relevance, this problem remains largely underexplored in existing research. To bridge this gap, we propose a bi-level knowledge distillation approach centered on a task-agnostic formulation of EHR data fidelity as an intrinsic measure of data reliability. Our approach performs layered knowledge distillation in two levels: from a computation-intensive, task-specific data Shapley oracle to a neural oracle for individual tasks, and then to a unified EHR data fidelity predictor. This design enables the integration of task-specific insights into a holistic assessment of a patient's EHR data fidelity from a multi-task perspective. By tracking the outputs of this learned predictor, we detect potential data deviations in EHR data.

Large language models (LLMs) offer a scalable mechanism to elicit domain-informed prior information for high-dimensional variable selection. However, existing methods such as LLM-Lasso are sensitive to weight quality, with performance degrading substantially when LLM-generated weights are inaccurate. To address this challenge, we first introduce a framework for quantifying the quality of LLM-generated weights, enabling rigorous evaluation of LLM-informed methods across varying weight regimes. We then propose the LLM Sparsity Prior (LSP), which integrates LLM-generated weights into the prior inclusion probabilities of Spike-and-Slab and Spike-and-Slab Lasso models via two interpretable hyperparameters governing global sparsity and weight concentration. Hierarchical hyperpriors on these parameters allow the model to dynamically discount uninformative or misleading weights, improving robustness without sacrificing gains when weights are accurate. Finally, we develop principled prompt engineering strategies and validate the method on a private medical dataset studying Acute Kidney Injury. LSP improves prediction accuracy and identifies clinically relevant features missed by the baselines, with robustness to prompt variation and particular effectiveness in low-data regimes.

Tabular data underpins most high-value prediction problems in science and industry, and TabPFN has driven the foundation model revolution for this modality. Designed with feedback from our users, TabPFN-3 builds on this foundation to scale state-of-the-art performance to datasets with 1M training rows and substantially reduce training and inference time. Pretrained exclusively on synthetic data from our prior, TabPFN-3 dramatically pushes the frontier of tabular prediction and brings substantial gains on time series, relational, and tabular-text data. On the standard tabular benchmark TabArena, a forward pass of TabPFN-3 outperforms all other models, including tuned and ensembled baselines, by a significant margin, and pareto-dominates the speed/performance frontier. On more diverse datasets, TabPFN-3 ranks first on datasets with many classes, and beats 8-hour-tuned gradient-boosted-tree baselines on datasets up to 1M training rows and 200 features. TabPFN-3 introduces test-time compute scaling to tabular foundation models. Our API offering TabPFN-3-Plus (Thinking) exploits this to beat all non-TabPFN models by over 200 Elo on TabArena, rising to 420 Elo on the largest data subset, and outperforms AutoGluon 1.5 extreme while being 10x faster, without using LLMs, real data, internet search or any other model besides TabPFN. TabPFN-3 extends the capabilities of our models, enabling SOTA prediction on relational data (new SOTA foundation model on RelBenchV1) and tabular-text data (SOTA on TabSTAR via TabPFN-3-Plus); and improves existing integrations: a specialized checkpoint, TabPFN-TS-3, ranks 2nd on the time-series benchmark fev-bench, and SHAP-value computation is up to 120x faster. TabPFN-3 achieves this performance while being up to 20x faster than TabPFN-2.5. In addition, a reduced KV cache and row-chunking scale to 1M rows on one H100 with fast inference speed.

Numerous real-world systems, ranging from healthcare to energy grids, involve users competing for finite and potentially scarce resources. Designing policies for repeated resource allocation in such real-world systems is challenging for many reasons, including the changing nature of user types and their (possibly urgent) need for resources. Researchers have developed numerous machine learning solutions for determining repeated resource allocation policies in these challenging settings. However, a key limitation has been the absence of good methods and test-beds for benchmarking these policies; almost all resource allocation policies are benchmarked in environments which are either completely synthetic or do not allow any deviation from historical data. In this paper we introduce AllSim, which is a benchmarking environment for realistically simulating the impact and utility of policies for resource allocation in systems in which users compete for such scarce resources. Building such a benchmarking environment is challenging because it needs to successfully take into account the entire collective of potential users and the impact a resource allocation policy has on all the other users in the system. AllSim's benchmarking environment is modular (each component being parameterized individually), learnable (informed by historical data), and customizable (adaptable to changing conditions). These, when interacting with an allocation policy, produce a dataset of simulated outcomes for evaluation and comparison of such policies. We believe AllSim is an essential step towards a more systematic evaluation of policies for scarce resource allocation compared to current approaches for benchmarking such methods.